India, a two-time finalist in the World Test Championship, finds itself in a precarious situation following a disappointing 0-3 defeat at home against New Zealand. This series loss has significantly jeopardized their chances of qualification, necessitating a strong performance in the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) where they must secure victories by a specific margin. Here’s a look at the various scenarios and strategies that could pave India's path to the World Test Championship Finals.
India's Path to Success Was Once Smooth
Team India has always been considered the absolute favourite in the World Test Championship (WTC) matches, except for the finals. This season began similarly, with India winning every home series and drawing one in South Africa, along with a few losses. This successful run positioned them to face Bangladesh after a long white-ball season. India topped the table and looked like the clear favorites to reach the finals for the third consecutive time. Defeating Bangladesh 2-0 further solidified their dominance at the top as they prepared to face New Zealand next.
Indian fans were particularly optimistic about this match, hoping for a clean sweep against New Zealand. However, things did not go as planned. New Zealand, known for upsetting India in World Cup knockouts, carried that trend into red-ball cricket, completing a historic whitewash against India at home with a 0-3 defeat. As a result of this series loss, India’s points went down, making their path to the finals more complicated. They now find themselves in a challenging position, needing to achieve a dominant result in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) in Australia to secure qualification.
"India's Fortunate Outcomes at the BGT Leading to the WTC Finals"Â
India is set to play five Tests in Australia for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT). Following India's series loss against New Zealand, they now sit in second place on the points table. This loss has opened the door for several teams to join the race for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. Although Australia currently leads the points table, they are hoping for certain favorable outcomes to secure their position, especially if they can defeat India in this upcoming series.
 For Australia, it's crucial to win the series against India by at least 3-2 or 3-0 to strengthen their chances in the WTC finals race. They also need some other results to go their way: New Zealand and England should end their series in a 1-1 draw, while South Africa should finish both of their remaining home series with a 1-1 draw as well. Additionally, Australia recently concluded their series in Sri Lanka with a 0-0 draw.
 Ideally, Australia hopes to whitewash India 5-0 at home. If they achieve this, they wouldn't need to worry about the standings involving South Africa and New Zealand, as this would likely secure their spot at the top of the table.
After jeopardizing their previously pressure-free journey to the WTC Finals, Team India now finds itself in a difficult position. Initially, India was expected to secure a decisive 4-0 victory over Australia to reclaim the top spot, making them strong favorites to reach the final at Lord’s. Another possible scenario is winning the series 3-2, which represents the minimum outcome required for India to keep their hopes alive, contingent upon favorable results from other teams.
